Predicting time to serologic diagnosis of AQP4+ NMOSD based on clinical factors and social determinants of health

Background: Early serologic diagnosis and initiation of targeted therapy are associated with better outcomes in aquaporin-4 IgG positive (AQP4+) neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD).

Objective: To determine predictors of time to serologic diagnosis of AQP4+ NMOSD.

Methods: In CANOPTICS, a multi-centre, Canadian cohort study of NMOSD, we retrospectively evaluated time from the first clinical attack to first positive AQP4-IgG serology. We used a multivariable negative binomial regression model to evaluate possible predictors of time to diagnosis.

Results: We identified 129 participants with AQP4+ NMOSD from 7 centres. Diagnostic delay of >1 month was observed in 82 (63.6 %). Asian compared to European (White) ethnicity (IRR:0.40, 95 % CI:0.21-0.78), female sex (IRR:0.56, 95 % CI:0.32-0.99), later calendar year (IRR:0.84, 95 % CI:0.81-0.86), and hospitalization for the first attack (IRR:0.35, 95 % CI:0.20-0.62) were associated with shorter times to serologic diagnosis. We did not observe any overall effect of Afro-Caribbean ethnicity, but in exploratory analyses, Afro-Caribbean individuals with low income had longer times to diagnosis.

Conclusion: More than 60 % of patients with NMOSD experienced delays to AQP4-IgG serologic diagnosis in this cohort. Given evidence of more adverse long-term outcomes in Afro-Caribbean individuals with NMOSD, intersectional effects of ethnicity and social determinants of health merit further study.