Infant mortality trends and differentials are estimated from the 1981 Nepal Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (NCPS) and compared with similar estimates from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS) and the 1981 Census of Nepal. The analysis indicates that infant mortality rates derived directly from the NFS maternity histories are the most accurate. Infant mortality rates derived directly from the NCPS maternity histories are severely underestimated and yield a strongly biased trend that is the reverse of the true downward trend. Indirect estimates of infant mortality trends derived from child survivorship data do not result in a consistent pattern. Infant mortality differentials, when expressed in relative rather than absolute terms, are generally consistent with findings from earlier studies. Possible reasons for data quality differences among the three data sources are discussed.
PIP: Infant mortality trends and differentials are estimated from the 1981 Nepal Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (NCPS) and compared with similar estimates from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS) and the 1981 Census of Nepal. The analysis indicates that infant mortality rates derived directly from the NFS maternity histories are the most accurate. Infant mortality rates derived directly from the NCPS maternity histories are severely underestimated and yield a strongly biased trend that is the reverse of the true downward trend. Indirect estimates of infant mortality trends derived from child survivorship data do not result in a consistent pattern. Infant mortality differentials, when expressed in relative rather than absolute terms, are generally consistent with findings from ealier studies. More resources were devoted to the NFS than to the NCPS. These additional resources devoted to quality control spelled the difference between usable and largely unusable estimates of infant mortality. In Nepal, where survey-taking is such a difficult enterprise, substantial investiments in quality control in demographic surveys are needed. The analysis also indicates the importance of using as many estimation methods applied to as many data sources as possible, in order to maximize the number of comparisons and consistency checks.