Preoperative CA 19-9 Predicts Disease Progression in Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases Treated with Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy: An Analysis from the US HIPEC Collaborative

Introduction: Patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM) are increasingly treated with cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC). Unfortunately, data identifying preoperative risk factors for poor oncologic outcomes after this procedure are limited. We aimed to determine the prognostic value of preoperative CEA, CA 125, and CA 19-9 on disease progression after CRS/HIPEC.

Methods: Patients with CRPM treated with curative intent CRS/HIPEC from 12 participating sites in the United States from 2000 to 2017 were identified. Progression-free survival (PFS), defined as disease progression or recurrence, was the primary outcome.

Results: In 279 patients who met inclusion criteria, the rate of disease progression was 63.8%, with a median PFS of 11 months (interquartile range [IQR] 5-20). Elevated CA 19-9 was associated with dismal PFS at 2 years (8.9% elevated vs. 30% not elevated, p < 0.01). In 113 patients who underwent upfront CRS/HIPEC, CA 19-9 emerged as the sole tumor marker independently predictive of worse PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.88, p = 0.048). In the subgroup of patients who had received neoadjuvant therapy (NAT), no variable was independently predictive of PFS. CA 19-9 levels over 37 U/ml were highly specific for accelerated disease progression after CRS/HIPEC. Lastly, there was no association between PFS and elevated CEA or CA 125.

Conclusions: Elevated CA 19-9 is associated with decreased PFS in patients with CRPM. While traditionally CEA is the main tumor marker assessed in colon cancer, we found that CA 19-9 may better inform preoperative risk stratification for poor oncologic outcomes in patients with CRPM. However, prospective studies are required to confirm this association.