Recent developments in protein design rely on large neural networks with up to 100s of millions of parameters, yet it is unclear which residue dependencies are critical for determining protein function. Here, we show that amino acid preferences at individual residues-without accounting for mutation interactions-explain much and sometimes virtually all of the combinatorial mutation effects across 8 datasets (R2 ~ 78-98%). Hence, few observations (~100 times the number of mutated residues) enable accurate prediction of held-out variant effects (Pearson r > 0.80). We hypothesized that the local structural contexts around a residue could be sufficient to predict mutation preferences, and develop an unsupervised approach termed CoVES (Combinatorial Variant Effects from Structure). Our results suggest that CoVES outperforms not just model-free methods but also similarly to complex models for creating functional and diverse protein variants. CoVES offers an effective alternative to complicated models for identifying functional protein mutations.
© 2024. The Author(s).