Prediction by a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics signature model of disease-free survival in patients with rectal cancer treated by surgery

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomics signature model to predict disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with rectal cancer treated by surgery.

Materials and methods: We evaluated data of 194 patients with rectal cancer who had undergone radical surgery between April 2016 and September 2021. The mean age of all patients was 62.6 ± 9.7 years (range: 37-86 years). The study endpoint was DFS and 1132 radiomic features were extracted from preoperative MRIs, including contrast-enhanced T1- and T2-weighted imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient values. The study patients were randomly allocated to training (n=97) and validation cohorts (n=97) in a ratio of 5:5. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to generate a radiomics signature (rad score). The associations of rad score with DFS were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Three models, namely a radiomics nomogram, radiomics signature, and clinical model, were compared using the Akaike information criterion.

Result: The rad score, which was composed of four MRI features, stratified rectal cancer patients into low- and high-risk groups and was associated with DFS in both the training (p = 0.0026) and validation sets (p = 0.036). Moreover, a radiomics nomogram model that combined rad score and independent clinical risk factors performed better (Harrell concordance index [C-index] =0.77) than a purely radiomics signature (C-index=0.73) or clinical model (C-index=0.70).

Conclusion: An MRI radiomics model that incorporates a radiomics signature and clinicopathological factors more accurately predicts DFS than does a clinical model in patients with rectal cancer.