In the face of ambiguity: intrinsic brain organization in development predicts one's bias toward positivity or negativity

Exacerbated negativity bias, including in responses to ambiguity, represents a common phenotype of internalizing disorders. Individuals differ in their propensity toward positive or negative appraisals of ambiguity. This variability constitutes one's valence bias, a stable construct linked to mental health. Evidence suggests an initial negativity in response to ambiguity that updates via regulatory processes to support a more positive bias. Previous work implicates the amygdala and prefrontal cortex, and regions of the cingulo-opercular system, in this regulatory process. Nonetheless, the neurodevelopmental origins of valence bias remain unclear. The current study tests whether intrinsic brain organization predicts valence bias among 119 children and adolescents (6 to 17 years). Using whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity, a machine-learning model predicted valence bias (r = 0.20, P = 0.03), as did a model restricted to amygdala and cingulo-opercular system features (r = 0.19, P = 0.04). Disrupting connectivity revealed additional intra-system (e.g. fronto-parietal) and inter-system (e.g. amygdala to cingulo-opercular) connectivity important for prediction. The results highlight top-down control systems and bottom-up perceptual processes that influence valence bias in development. Thus, intrinsic brain organization informs the neurodevelopmental origins of valence bias, and directs future work aimed at explicating related internalizing symptomology.