Cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality among adults with HIV in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda

Objective: We estimated the effects of cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms on risk of all-cause mortality among people with HIV (PWH) in four African countries.

Design: An analysis of prospective cohort data.

Methods: The African Cohort Study (AFRICOS) is a prospective cohort of people receiving care at twelve clinics in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Every 6 months from January 2013 to May 2020, participants underwent laboratory monitoring, structured surveys, and assessment of depressive symptom severity using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). All-cause mortality was the outcome of interest. The predictor of interest was a time-updated measure of the percentage of days lived with depression (PDD). Marginal structural Cox proportional hazards regression models were used, adjusting for potential confounders including time-varying alcohol use, drug use, and viral load.

Results: Among 2520 enrolled participants, 1479 (59%) were women and the median age was 38 (interquartile range [IQR]: 32-46). At enrollment, 1438 (57%) were virally suppressed (<200 copies/ml) and 457 (18%) had CES-D at least 16, indicating possible depression. Across 9093 observed person-years, the median PDD was 0.7% (IQR: 0-5.9%) with 0.8 deaths per 100 person-years. Leading causes of death included cancer (18% of deaths) and accidents (14%). Models suggested that each 25% absolute increase in PDD was associated with a 69% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.18-2.43).

Conclusion: Cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms was substantially associated with the risk of mortality in this cohort of PWH in Africa.