Urine tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites and risk of end stage kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

Context: Metabolites in tricarboxylic acid (TCA) pathway have pleiotropic functions.

Objective: To study the association between urine TCA cycle metabolites and the risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

Design, setting and participants: A prospective study in a discovery (n = 1826) and a validation (n = 1235) cohort of type 2 diabetes in a regional hospital and a primary care facility.

Exposure and outcome: Urine lactate, pyruvate, citrate, alpha-ketoglutarate, succinate, fumarate and malate were measured by mass spectrometry. CKD progression was defined as a composite of sustained eGFR below 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 , dialysis, renal death or doubling of serum creatinine.

Results: During a median of 9.2 (IQR 8.1-9.7) and 4.0 (3.2-5.1) years of follow-up, 213 and 107 renal events were identified. Cox regression suggested that urine lactate, fumarate and malate were associated with an increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR [95% CI] 1.63 [1.16-2.28], 1.82 [1.17-2.82] and 1.49 [1.05-2.11], per SD), while citrate was associated with a low risk (aHR 0.83 [0.72-0.96] per SD) for the renal outcome after adjustment for cardio-renal risk factors. These findings were reproducible in the validation cohort. Noteworthy, fumarate and citrate were independently associated with the renal outcome after additional adjustment for other metabolites.

Conclusion: Urine fumarate and citrate predict the risk for progression to ESKD independent of clinical risk factors and other urine metabolites. These two metabolites in TCA cycle pathway may play important roles in the pathophysiological network underpinning progressive loss of kidney function in patients with type 2 diabetes.