Early detection and prognosis evaluation for hepatocellular carcinoma by circulating tumour DNA methylation: A multicentre cohort study

Background: Early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can significantly improve patient survival. We aimed to develop a blood-based assay to aid in the diagnosis, detection and prognostic evaluation of HCC.

Methods: A three-phase multicentre study was conducted to screen, optimise and validate HCC-specific differentially methylated regions (DMRs) using next-generation sequencing and quantitative methylation-specific PCR (qMSP).

Results: Genome-wide methylation profiling was conducted to identify DMRs distinguishing HCC tumours from peritumoural tissues and healthy plasmas. The twenty most effective DMRs were verified and incorporated into a multilocus qMSP assay (HepaAiQ). The HepaAiQ model was trained to separate 293 HCC patients (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0/A, 224) from 266 controls including chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or liver cirrhosis (LC) (CHB/LC, 96), benign hepatic lesions (BHL, 23), and healthy controls (HC, 147). The model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.944 with a sensitivity of 86.0% in HCC and a specificity of 92.1% in controls. Blind validation of the HepaAiQ model in a cohort of 523 participants resulted in an AUC of 0.940 with a sensitivity of 84.4% in 205 HCC cases (BCLC stage 0/A, 167) and a specificity of 90.3% in 318 controls (CHB/LC, 100; BHL, 102; HC, 116). When evaluated in an independent test set, the HepaAiQ model exhibited a sensitivity of 70.8% in 65 HCC patients at BCLC stage 0/A and a specificity of 89.5% in 124 patients with CHB/LC. Moreover, HepaAiQ model was assessed in paired pre- and postoperative plasma samples from 103 HCC patients and correlated with 2-year patient outcomes. Patients with high postoperative HepaAiQ score showed a higher recurrence risk (Hazard ratio, 3.33, p < .001).

Conclusions: HepaAiQ, a noninvasive qMSP assay, was developed to accurately measure HCC-specific DMRs and shows great potential for the diagnosis, detection and prognosis of HCC, benefiting at-risk populations.