Increases and decreases in liver stiffness measurement are independently associated with the risk of liver-related events in NAFLD

Background & aims: The clinical significance of change in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well-understood. We prospectively defined rates of progression to and regression from LSM-defined compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and their associations with liver-related events (LREs).

Methods: Participants in the NASH Clinical Research Network-led NAFLD Database 2 and 3 studies were included. Progression to cACLD was defined as reaching LSM ≥10 kPa in participants with LSM <10 kPa on initial VCTE; regression from cACLD was defined as reaching LSM <10 kPa in participants with baseline LSM ≥10 kPa. LREs were defined as liver-related death, liver transplant, hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD >15, development of varices, or hepatic decompensation. Univariate and multivariable interval-censored Cox regression analyses were used to compare the cumulative LRE probability by LSM progression and regression status.

Results: In 1,403 participants, 89 LREs developed over a mean follow-up of 4.4 years, with an annual incidence rate for LREs of 1.5 (95% CI 1.2-1.8). In participants at risk, progression to LSM ≥10 or ≥15 kPa occurred in 29% and 17%, respectively, whereas regression to LSM <10 or <15 kPa occurred in 44% and 49%, respectively. Progressors to cACLD (≥10 kPa) experienced a higher cumulative LRE rate vs. non-progressors (16% vs. 4%, adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% (1.8-8.9); p <0.01). Regressors from cACLD (to LSM <10 kPa) experienced a lower LRE rate than non-regressors (7% vs. 32%, adjusted hazard ratio 0.25; 95% CI 0.10-0.61; p <0.01).

Conclusions: Change in LSM over time is independently and bi-directionally associated with risk of LRE and is a non-invasive surrogate for clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD.

Impact and implications: The prognostic value of change in LSM in patients with NAFLD is not well understood. In this large prospective study of patients with NAFLD and serial vibration-controlled transient elastography exams, baseline and dynamic changes in LSM were associated with the risk of developing liver-related events. LSM is a useful non-invasive surrogate of clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD.