Use of artificial intelligence embryo selection based on static images to predict first-trimester pregnancy loss

Research question: Can an artificial intelligence embryo selection assistant predict the incidence of first-trimester spontaneous abortion using static images of IVF embryos?

Design: In a blind, retrospective study, a cohort of 172 blastocysts from IVF cases with single embryo transfer and a positive biochemical pregnancy test was ranked retrospectively by the artificial intelligence morphometric algorithm ERICA. Making use of static embryo images from a light microscope, each blastocyst was assigned to one of four possible groups (optimal, good, fair or poor), and linear regression was used to correlate the results with the presence or absence of a normal fetal heart beat as an indicator of ongoing pregnancy or spontaneous abortion, respectively. Additional analyses included modelling for recipient age and chromosomal status established by preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A).

Results: Embryos classified as optimal/good had a lower incidence of spontaneous abortion (16.1%) compared with embryos classified as fair/poor (25%; OR = 0.46, P = 0.005). The incidence of spontaneous abortion in chromosomally normal embryos (determined by PGT-A) was 13.3% for optimal/good embryos and 20.0% for fair/poor embryos, although the difference was not significant (P = 0.531). There was a significant association between embryo rank and recipient age (P = 0.018), in that the incidence of spontaneous abortion was unexpectedly lower in older recipients (21.3% for age ≤35 years, 17.9% for age 36-38 years, 16.4% for age ≥39 years; OR = 0.354, P = 0.0181). Overall, these results support correlation between risk of spontaneous abortion and embryo rank as determined by artificial intelligence; classification accuracy was calculated to be 67.4%.

Conclusions: This preliminary study suggests that artificial intelligence (ERICA), which was designed as a ranking system to assist with embryo transfer decisions and ploidy prediction, may also be useful to provide information for couples on the risk of spontaneous abortion. Future work will include a larger sample size and karyotyping of miscarried pregnancy tissue.