A Review of Fluid Bolus in Critically Ill Patients After Initial Volume Expansion: Bayesian Probability Analysis and Case Studies

Introduction Fluid resuscitation is a crucial intervention for the management of critically ill patients. However, after initial volume expansion, the advantages of fluid bolus administration remain controversial. Our aim was to investigate the probabilistic reasoning against fluid bolus administration in critically ill patients after initial volume expansion. We then applied this reasoning to two hypothetical case studies that evaluated the benefits and risks associated with a fluid bolus for each patient. Methods We analyzed data from 12 previously published studies, totaling 334 patients, on fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. Owing to differences in these studies, we used a Monte Carlo simulation based on their parameters to improve our Bayesian prior, generate strong estimates, and address uncertainty. Using the established Bayesian prior for volume responsiveness, we scrutinized two hypothetical case studies employing Bayesian mathematical notation to assess the pre-test probability, posterior probability, and likelihood ratios in patients with septic shock. Results The Monte Carlo simulation yielded a mean response rate of 0.54 (SD = 0.026), suggesting that only approximately 54% of patients were responsive to fluid bolus administration. These results had an effective sample size of 17,204 and an R-hat value of 1, demonstrating the reliability of our results. In our Bayesian case studies, we demonstrate the low probabilities of volume and VO₂ responsiveness over time using common bedside testing. Conclusion Our analysis shows that the pretest and posttest probabilities for volume responsiveness following initial fluid resuscitation are low. Additional bedside testing should be pursued before administering additional volume. This approach emphasizes the importance of evidence-based decision-making in the management of critically ill patients to optimize patient outcomes and minimize potential risks.