A nomogram to predict the pathological complete response in patients with breast cancer based on the TILs-US score

Background: The tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography score is a calculation system for predicting lymphocyte-predominant breast cancers in surgical specimens. A nomogram based on the tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography score was developed to predict the pathological complete response in breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Methods: A retrospective evaluation was conducted on 118 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy at Hiroshima University Hospital. Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography scores ≥4 were classified as high. A nomogram was developed using a stepwise logistic regression model for pathological complete response (ypT0 ypN0), based on the smallest Akaike information criterion. The predictive ability and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were also evaluated.

Results: Among 118 patients, 34 (28.8%) achieved a pathological complete response, and 52 (44.1%) exhibited high tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, high tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography (odds ratio, 6.01; P < 0.001), clinical complete response (odds ratio, 4.83; P = 0.004) and hormone receptor (odds ratio, 3.48; P = 0.038) were independent predictors of pathological complete response. A nomogram based on tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography score, clinical complete response, hormone receptor and clinical N status was developed. The nomogram showed an area under the curve of 0.831 and a bias-corrected area under the curve of 0.809. The calibration plot showed a good fit between the expected and actual pathological complete response values. Decision curve analysis also showed the clinical utility of the nomogram for predicting pathological complete responses.

Conclusions: A nomogram based on the tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes-ultrasonography score exhibited a favorable predictive ability for pathological complete response in patients with breast cancer, which can be useful in predicting the residual disease status after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.