Any resurgence of leprosy cases in the Togo's post-elimination period? Trend analysis of reported leprosy cases from 2010 to 2022

Background: Leprosy, or Hansen's disease, is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Togo achieved the target of eliminating leprosy as a public health problem in 2000 (less than 1 case/10 000 population). However, new cases of leprosy are still being reported. The aim of this study was to describe and map trends of leprosy cases notified in Togo from 2010 to 2022.

Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study covering a thirteen-year period from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2022. The data of the study were leprosy surveillance system's data collected monthly between 2010 and 2022. The estimated number of leprosy cases and the incidence rate of leprosy cases were reported for the whole population by region, by district, by calendar year (2010-2022) and by target sub-population (children under 15, women and people with disabilities). Observed case incidence rates were mapped by health district and by year.

Results: From January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2022, 1031 new cases of leprosy were diagnosed in Togo. The median age of subjects was 46 years (interquartile range: 33-60), with extremes from 4 to 96 years. Half the subjects were women (50.7%). Variations in the leprosy incidence rate by year show an increase between 2010 and 2022, from 0.7 cases /100,000 population to 1.1 /100,000 population respectively. From 2010 to 2022, the proportion of cases in children remained low, between 0 and 9%. The proportion of women fluctuated between 39.7% and 67.2% between 2010 and 2017, then stabilized at an average of 50% between 2018 and 2022. The proportion of multi-bacillary leprosy cases increased quasi-linearly between 2010 and 2022, from 70 to 96.6%. Mapping of leprosy cases showed that leprosy was notified in all Togo health districts during the study period, apart from the Lacs district, which reported no leprosy cases.

Conclusion: Togo has achieved the elimination of leprosy as a public health problem. However, the increase in the number of new leprosy cases and the proportion of leprosy cases in children indicate that transmission of the disease is continuing and that supplementary measures are needed.