Background: The risk of developing a persistent reduction in renal function after postoperative acute kidney injury (pAKI) is not well-established.
Objective: Perform a multi-center retrospective propensity matched study evaluating whether patients that develop pAKI have a greater decline in long-term renal function than patients that did not develop postoperative AKI.
Design: Multi-center retrospective propensity matched study.
Setting: Anesthesia data warehouses at three tertiary care hospitals were queried.
Patients: Adult patients undergoing surgery with available preoperative and postoperative creatinine results and without baseline hemodialysis requirements.
Measurements: The primary outcome was a decline in follow-up glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 40% relative to baseline, based on follow-up outpatient visits from 0-36 months after hospital discharge. A propensity score matched sample was used in Kaplan-Meier analysis and in a piecewise Cox model to compare time to first 40% decline in GFR for patients with and without pAKI.
Results: A total of 95,208 patients were included. The rate of pAKI ranged from 9.9% to 13.7%. In the piecewise Cox model, pAKI significantly increased the hazard of a 40% decline in GFR. The common effect hazard ratio was 13.35 (95% CI: 10.79 to 16.51, p<0.001) for 0-6 months, 7.07 (5.52 to 9.05, p<0.001) for 6-12 months, 6.02 (4.69 to 7.74, p<0.001) for 12-24 months, and 4.32 (2.65 to 7.05, p<0.001) for 24-36 months.
Limitations: Retrospective; Patients undergoing ambulatory surgery without postoperative lab tests drawn before discharge were not captured; certain variables like postoperative urine output were not reliably available.
Conclusion: Postoperative AKI significantly increases the risk of a 40% decline in GFR up to 36 months after the index surgery across three institutions.