Assessing the Performance of In silico Tools and Molecular Dynamics Simulations for Predicting Pharmacogenetic Variant Impact

The ability of freely available in silico tools to predict the effect of non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) in pharmacogenes on protein function is not well defined. We assessed the performance of seven sequence-based (SIFT, PolyPhen2, mutation accessor, FATHMM, PhD-SNP, MutPred2, and SNPs & Go) and five structure-based (mCSM, SDM, DDGun, CupSat, and MAESTROweb) tools in predicting the impact of 118 nsSNPs in the CYP2C19, CYP2C9, CYP2B6, CYP2D6, and DPYD genes with known function (24 normal, one increased, 42 decreased, and 51 no-function). Sequence-based tools had a higher median (IQR) positive predictive value (89% [89-94%] vs. 12% [10-15%], P < 0.001) and lower negative predictive value (30% [24-34%] vs. 90% [80-93%], P < 0.001) than structure-based tools. Accuracy did not significantly differ between sequence-based (59% [37-67%]) and structure-based (34% [23-44%]) tools (P = 0.070). Notably, the no-function CYP2C9*3 allele and decreased function CYP2C9*8 allele were predicted incorrectly as tolerated by 100% of sequenced-based tools and as stabilizing by 60% and 20% of structure-based tools, respectively. As a case study, we performed mutational analysis for the CYP2C9*1, *3 (I359L), and *8 (R150H) proteins through molecular dynamic (MD) simulations using S-warfarin as the substrate. The I359L variant increased the distance of the major metabolic site of S-warfarin to the oxy-ferryl center of CYP2C9, and I359L and R150H caused shifts in the conformation of S-warfarin to a position less favorable for metabolism. These data suggest that MD simulations may better capture the impact of nsSNPs in pharmacogenes than other tools.