Identification and correction for collider bias in a genome-wide association study of diabetes-related heart failure

Am J Hum Genet. 2024 Jul 11;111(7):1481-1493. doi: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2024.05.018. Epub 2024 Jun 18.

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF) and has elevated incidence among individuals with HF. Since genetics and HF can independently influence T2D, collider bias may occur when T2D (i.e., collider) is controlled for by design or analysis. Thus, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of diabetes-related HF with correction for collider bias. We first performed a GWAS of HF to identify genetic instrumental variables (GIVs) for HF and to enable bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis between T2D and HF. We identified 61 genomic loci, significantly associated with all-cause HF in 114,275 individuals with HF and over 1.5 million controls of European ancestry. Using a two-sample bidirectional MR approach with 59 and 82 GIVs for HF and T2D, respectively, we estimated that T2D increased HF risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.10), while HF also increased T2D risk (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.36-1.88). Then we performed a GWAS of diabetes-related HF corrected for collider bias due to the study design of index cases. After removing the spurious association of TCF7L2 locus due to collider bias, we identified two genome-wide significant loci close to PITX2 (chromosome 4) and CDKN2B-AS1 (chromosome 9) associated with diabetes-related HF in the Million Veteran Program and replicated the associations in the UK Biobank. Our MR findings provide strong evidence that HF increases T2D risk. As a result, collider bias leads to spurious genetic associations of diabetes-related HF, which can be effectively corrected to identify true positive loci.

Keywords: GWAS; Mendelian randomization; bias correction; bidirectional; case-only study; collider bias; diabetes; heart failure; index event bias.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Bias
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p15 / genetics
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / complications
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / genetics
  • Female
  • Genetic Predisposition to Disease
  • Genome-Wide Association Study*
  • Heart Failure* / genetics
  • Homeodomain Proteins / genetics
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mendelian Randomization Analysis*
  • Middle Aged
  • Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
  • Risk Factors
  • Transcription Factors / genetics
  • White People / genetics

Substances

  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p15
  • Homeodomain Proteins
  • Transcription Factors
  • CDKN2B protein, human