Cardiac mechanics and the risk of atrial fibrillation in a community-based cohort of older adults

Aims: Assessment of cardiac structure and function improves risk prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in different populations. We aimed to comprehensively compare standard and newer measures of cardiac structure and function in improving prediction of AF in a cohort of older adults without history of AF and stroke.

Methods and results: We included 5050 participants without prevalent AF and stroke (mean age 75 ± 5 years, 59% women, and 22% Black) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who underwent complete two-dimensional echocardiography, including speckle-tracking analysis of the left ventricle (LV) and left atrium (LA). We assessed the association of cardiac measures with incident AF (including atrial flutter) and quantified the extent to which these measures improved model discrimination and risk classification of AF compared with the CHARGE-AF score. Over a median follow-up time of 7 years, 676 participants developed AF (incidence rate 2.13 per 100 person-years). LV mass index and wall thickness, E/e', and measures of LA structure and function, but not LV systolic function, were associated with incident AF, after accounting for confounders. Above all, LA reservoir strain, contraction strain, and LA minimal volume index (C-statistics [95% confidence interval]: 0.73 [0.70, 0.75], 0.72 [0.70, 0.75], and 0.72 [0.69, 0.75], respectively) significantly improved the risk discrimination of the CHARGE-AF score (baseline C-statistic: 0.68 [0.65, 0.70]) and achieved the highest category-based net reclassification improvement (29%, 24%, and 20%, respectively).

Conclusion: In a large cohort of older adults without prevalent AF and stroke, measures of LA function improved the prediction of AF more than other conventional cardiac measures.