Comparative effectiveness of combination therapy with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir versus monotherapy with remdesivir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: a target trial emulation study

Lancet Infect Dis. 2024 Nov;24(11):1213-1224. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00353-0. Epub 2024 Jul 15.

Abstract

Background: Remdesivir (Veklury, Gilead Sciences, Foster City, CA, USA) and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid, Pfizer, New York, NY, USA) were reported to improve the outcome of patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 symptoms. Preclinical data suggest that nirmatrelvir-ritonavir might be more effective than remdesivir alone or in combination with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for people at high risk of severe COVID-19. We aimed to assess the safety and effectiveness of combining remdesivir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir compared with using each drug alone for adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

Methods: In this target trial emulation study, we used electronic health records of patients aged 18 years or older who received either combination treatment of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir or monotherapy of either drug between March 16 and Dec 31, 2022, within 5 days of hospitalisation for COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to balance baseline patient characteristics across the treatment groups. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting weighting was used to compare the risk of all-cause mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or ventilatory support for 90 days of follow-up between groups.

Findings: Between March 16 and Dec 31, 2022, 18 196 participants were identified from electronic health records and assigned to receive remdesivir (n=4232), nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n=13 656), or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir (n=308). By applying an inverse probability of treatment weighting, a weighted sample composed of 18 410 recipients of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir combination treatment, 18 178 recipients of remdesivir monotherapy, and 18 287 recipients of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy was obtained. After a median follow-up of 84 days (IQR 45-90), risk of mortality was lower in patients who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy (hazard ratio [HR] 0·18 [95% CI 0·15 to 0·20]; absolute risk reduction [ARR] -16·33% [95% CI -16·98 to -15·68]) or remdesivir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir combination therapy (HR 0·66 [95% CI 0·49 to 0·89]; ARR -6·52% [95% CI -7·29 to -5·74]) than in patients who received remdesivir monotherapy. Similar results were observed for ICU admission or ventilatory support (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy: HR 0·09 [95% CI 0·07 to 0·11]; ARR -10·04% [95% CI -10·53 to -9·56]; combination therapy: HR 0·68 [95% CI 0·42 to 1·12]; ARR -3·24% [95% CI -3·84 to -2·64]). Compared with combination therapy, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy was associated with lower risk of mortality (HR 0·27 [95% CI 0·20 to 0·37]; ARR -9·81% [95% CI -10·39 to -9·24]) and ICU admission or ventilatory support (HR 0·13 [95% CI 0·08 to 0·22]; ARR -6·80% [95% CI -7·22 to -6·39]).

Interpretation: Our study highlighted the potential for reduced risk of mortality, ICU admission, or the need for ventilatory support in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir as a monotherapy compared with treatment regimens based on nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir combination therapy or remdesivir monotherapy. Further randomised controlled trials are needed to support the validity of the current results.

Funding: The Health and Medical Research Fund Commissioned Research on COVID-19.

Translation: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Adenosine Monophosphate* / administration & dosage
  • Adenosine Monophosphate* / analogs & derivatives
  • Adenosine Monophosphate* / therapeutic use
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Alanine* / analogs & derivatives
  • Alanine* / therapeutic use
  • Antiviral Agents* / administration & dosage
  • Antiviral Agents* / therapeutic use
  • COVID-19 / mortality
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • COVID-19 Drug Treatment*
  • Drug Therapy, Combination*
  • Female
  • Hospitalization* / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Indoles / administration & dosage
  • Indoles / therapeutic use
  • Lactams
  • Leucine / analogs & derivatives
  • Leucine / therapeutic use
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nitriles
  • Proline
  • Ritonavir* / therapeutic use
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Treatment Outcome

Substances

  • remdesivir
  • Alanine
  • Ritonavir
  • Adenosine Monophosphate
  • Antiviral Agents
  • nirmatrelvir
  • Leucine
  • Indoles
  • Lactams
  • Nitriles
  • Proline