Natural history of shedding and household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 using intensive high-resolution sampling

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to 775 million documented cases and over 7 million deaths worldwide as of March 2024 and is an ongoing health crisis. To limit viral spread within households and in the community, public health officials have recommended self-isolation, self-quarantine of exposed household contacts, and mask use. Yet, risk of household transmission (HHT) may be underestimated due to low frequency of sampling, and risk factors for HHT are not well understood.

Objectives: To estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 within households and to define the risk factors for new infections in household members who are in close contact with the index case.

Design, setting, and participants: In this prospective cohort study, from March 2020-December 2021 we enrolled 60 households with index cases who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. All household contacts and index cases were tested daily for SARS-CoV-2 via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using self-collected anterior nares specimens. Households were followed until all study participants in the household tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 for seven consecutive days. We collected sex, age, race/ethnicity, comorbidities, and relationship to index case for secondary contacts, household level characteristics including primary income, household density, and square feet per person on property. We compared the sociodemographic variables between COVID-19 positive and negative household members and between households where secondary transmission did and did not occur.

Main outcomes and measures: Daily anterior nares swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR, in order to assess duration of nasal shedding of SARS-CoV-2, as well as risk of transmission to secondary household contacts.

Results: Of the 163 participants in this study, 84 (51.5%) were women; median age (IQR) was 36.0 (17.0-54.0) years of age; 78 (47.8%) were white and 48 (29.5%) were Hispanic/LatinX. Of the fifty households with household contacts, at least one secondary case occurred in twenty-six households (52.0%) and forty-five household contacts (43.7%) were infected. Secondary attack rate was lowest among children of index cases (6/23, 26.1%). Modified Poisson regression identified that the risk of transmission to household contacts increases significantly with age (Risk ratio for each increase in years of age = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02). Mixed effects regression models identified that participants with chronic diseases, such as asthma, diabetes, cancer, or cardiac disease, had higher Cts at baseline when compared to participants without chronic diseases (6.62, 95% CI: 1.46-11.77, p = 0.02) and show a slower rate of increase in Ct over time (-0.43, 95% CI: -0.77 to -0.09, p = 0.02).

Conclusions and relevance: This study suggests that HHT represents a key source of community-based infection of SARS-CoV-2. Allocation of resources for contact investigations and prevention interventions should focus on the individuals at highest risk of infection in households, especially those with higher density homes.