Background: One in 7 adults have chronic kidney disease (CKD), which is associated with high morbidity and mortality and substantial health care costs, especially in more advanced disease. Our data from a US commercial payer show rising per-member-per-year costs for renal and cardiac complications associated with CKD.
Objective: To predict the clinical and economic impact of treatment with or without dapagliflozin from the perspective of a US commercial payer using a cost-offset model (COM).
Methods: The COM used real-world cost and member count data from a US employer-sponsored commercial payer and results of the double-blind, randomized, phase 3 Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD clinical trial (NCT03036150) to predict the incidence of clinical events, including a greater than or equal to 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), end-stage kidney disease, and hospitalization for heart failure, and their associated costs over a 3-year period. The COM compared a hypothetical scenario of the experience with or without dapagliflozin in members with CKD stages 2-4, aged younger than 65 years.
Results: In the simulated populations of 130 members, the COM projected 9 events of a greater than or equal to 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate for the experience with dapagliflozin vs 15 events for the experience without dapagliflozin (6 fewer events; number needed to treat [NNT] = 20, amounting to estimated cumulative cost offsets of $0.57 million [M] over a 3-year period). The COM projected similar results for end-stage kidney disease (8 events with dapagliflozin vs 14 events without dapagliflozin; NNT = 24, amounting to $1.92 M in cumulative cost offsets) and for hospitalization for heart failure (13 events with dapagliflozin vs 33 events without dapagliflozin; NNT = 7, amounting to $0.79 M in cumulative cost offsets). These projections translated to total mean, cumulative cost offsets of $3.89 M for all clinical events evaluated over the 3-year period (36.6% reduction with dapagliflozin vs without dapagliflozin), and net mean, cumulative cost offsets of $2.58 M over the 3-year period (24.2% reduction with dapagliflozin vs without dapagliflozin) after factoring in a discounted wholesale acquisition cost for dapagliflozin expenditure ($1.31 M over 3 years). Thus, the net mean, cumulative cost offsets were $19,843 per member over 3 years, representing a 197% return on investment for dapagliflozin expenditure.
Conclusions: Results of our COM suggest that dapagliflozin can reduce clinical events and their associated costs over a 3-year period when compared with a scenario without dapagliflozin. Cost offsets increased with each year, indicating that US commercial payers can substantially reduce costs associated with CKD morbidity and mortality.