Prediction of visceral adipose tissue magnitude using a new model based on simple clinical measurements

Aims: Waist circumference (WC) is a reliable obesity surrogate but may not distinguish between visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue. Our aim was to develop a novel sex-specific model to estimate the magnitude of visceral adipose tissue measured by computed tomography (CT-VAT).

Methods: The model was initially formulated through the integration of anthropometric measurements, laboratory data, and CT-VAT within a study group (n=185), utilizing the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) methodology. Subsequently, its correlation with CT-VAT was examined in an external validation group (n=50). The accuracy of the new model in estimating increased CT-VAT (>130 cm²) was compared with WC, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), visceral adiposity index (VAI), a body shape index (ABSI), lipid accumulation product (LAP), body roundness index (BRI), and metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) in the study group. Additionally, the new model's accuracy in identifying metabolic syndrome was evaluated in our Metabolic Healthiness Discovery Cohort (n=430).

Results: The new model comprised WC, gender, BMI, and hip circumference, providing the highest predictive accuracy in estimating increased CT-VAT in men (AUC of 0.96 ± 0.02), outperforming other indices. In women, the AUC was 0.94 ± 0.03, which was significantly higher than that of VAI, WHR, and ABSI but similar to WC, BMI, LAP, BRI, and METS-VF. It's demonstrated high ability for identifying metabolic syndrome with an AUC of 0.76 ± 0.03 (p<0.001).

Conclusion: The new model is a valuable indicator of CT-VAT, especially in men, and it exhibits a strong predictive capability for identifying metabolic syndrome.