Global trends in COVID-19 incidence and case fatality rates (2019-2023): a retrospective analysis

Objectives: Analyzing and comparing COVID-19 infection and case-fatality rates across different regions can help improve our response to future pandemics.

Methods: We used public data from the WHO to calculate and compare the COVID-19 infection and case-fatality rates in different continents and income levels from 2019 to 2023.

Results: The Global prevalence of COVID-19 increased from 0.011 to 0.098, while case fatality rates declined from 0.024 to 0.009. Europe reported the highest cumulative infection rate (0.326), with Africa showing the lowest (0.011). Conversely, Africa experienced the highest cumulative case fatality rates (0.020), with Oceania the lowest (0.002). Infection rates in Asia showed a steady increase in contrast to other continents which observed initial rises followed by decreases. A correlation between economic status and infection rates was identified; high-income countries had the highest cumulative infection rate (0.353) and lowest case fatality rate (0.006). Low-income countries showed low cumulative infection rates (0.006) but the highest case fatality rate (0.016). Initially, high and upper-middle-income countries experienced elevated initial infection and case fatality rates, which subsequently underwent significant reductions.

Conclusions: COVID-19 rates varied significantly by continent and income level. Europe and the Americas faced surges in infections and low case fatality rates. In contrast, Africa experienced low infection rates and higher case fatality rates, with lower- and middle-income nations exceeding case fatality rates in high-income countries over time.