Trends in the incidence and mortality of cervical, ovarian, and corpus uteri cancers in Wales, UK: A joinpoint regression analysis from 2002 to 2021

Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to examine the secular trends of cervical, ovarian, and corpus uteri neoplasm in Wales, UK, over the period from 2002 to 2021. We aimed to identify changes in the incidence and mortality rates of these cancers to inform future healthcare policies and cancer prevention programs.

Methods: We sourced incidence data from 2002 to 2019 and mortality data from 2002 to 2021 from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit. The data were analysed using Joinpoint regression to compute the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 population for each type of cancer.

Results: The results showed that the ASIR for cervical cancer remained stable between 2002 and 2019 (AAPC = -0.5; 95 %CI = -1.4-0.4). However, the ASMR significantly declined from 4.88 in 2002-3.03 in 2021 (AAPC = -2.3; 95 %CI = -3.4 to -1.1). The ASIR for ovarian cancer significantly decreased from 27.39 in 2002-17.87 in 2019 (AAPC = -2.6; 95 %CI = -3.0 to -2.1), and the ASMR showed a statistically significant decreasing trend from 15.92 in 2002-11.2 in 2021 (AAPC = -1.7; 95 %CI = -2.5 to -0.9). In contrast, the ASIR for corpus uteri neoplasm significantly increased from 22.24 in 2002-30.41 in 2019 (AAPC = 2.2; 95 %CI = 1.2-3.4), and ASMR also showed a statistically significant increasing trend from 3.27 in 2002-6.42 in 2021 (AAPC = 3.8; 95 %CI = 2.3-5.3).

Conclusions: The study concludes that while the incidence and mortality rates for cervical and ovarian cancers in Wales have significantly decreased, corpus uteri neoplasm rates have increased during the study period. These findings underscore the need for continued efforts to improve early detection and treatment strategies, including national screening programs and public health initiatives, to mitigate the burden of these cancers.