Clinical value of plasma pTau181 to predict Alzheimer's disease pathology in a large real-world cohort of a memory clinic

Background: The identification of patients with an elevated risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and eligible for the disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) in the earliest stages is one of the greatest challenges in the clinical practice. Plasma biomarkers has the potential to predict these issues, but further research is still needed to translate them to clinical practice. Here we evaluated the clinical applicability of plasma pTau181 as a predictive marker of AD pathology in a large real-world cohort of a memory clinic.

Methods: Three independent cohorts (modelling [n = 991, 59.7% female], testing [n = 642, 56.2% female] and validation [n = 441, 55.1% female]) of real-world patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD dementia, and other dementias were included. Paired cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma samples were used to measure AT(N) CSF biomarkers and plasma pTau181.

Findings: CSF and plasma pTau181 showed correlation in all phenotypes except in SCD and other dementias. Age significantly influenced the biomarker's performance. The general Aβ(+) vs Aβ(-) ROC curve showed an AUC = 0.77 [0.74-0.80], whereas the specific ROC curve of MCI due to AD vs non-AD MCI showed an AUC = 0.89 [0.85-0.93]. A cut-off value of 1.30 pg/ml of plasma pTau181 exhibited a sensitivity of 93.57% [88.72-96.52], specificity of 72.38% [62.51-79.01], VPP of 77.85% [70.61-83.54], and 8.30% false negatives in the subjects with MCI of the testing cohort. The HR of cox regression showed that patients with MCI up to this cut-off value exhibited a HR = 1.84 [1.05-3.22] higher risk to convert to AD dementia than patients with MCI below the cut-off value.

Interpretation: Plasma pTau181 has the potential to be used in the memory clinics as a screening biomarker of AD pathology in subjects with MCI, presenting a valuable prognostic utility in predicting the MCI conversion to AD dementia. In the context of a real-world population, a confirmatory test employing gold-standard procedures is still advisable.

Funding: This study has been mainly funded by Ace Alzheimer Center Barcelona, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Biomedical Research Networking Centre in Neurodegenerative Diseases (CIBERNED), Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Fundación ADEY, Fundación Echevarne and Grífols S.A.