Landscape transition-induced ecological risk modeling using GIS and remote sensing techniques: a case of Saint Martin Island, Bangladesh

Uncontrolled human activity and nature are causing the deterioration of Saint Martin Island, Bangladesh's only tropical island, necessitating sustainable land use strategies and ecological practices. Therefore, the present study measures the land use/cover transition from 1974 to 2021, predicts 2032 and 2042, and constructs the spatiotemporal features of the Landscape Ecological Risk Index based on land use changes. The study utilized Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) on Landsat images from 1974, 1988, 2001, 2013, and Sentinel 2B in 2021, achieving ≥ 80% accuracy. The MLP-MC approach was also used to predict 2032 and 2042 LULC change patterns. The eco-risk index was developed using landscape disturbance and vulnerability indices, Bayesian Kriging interpolation, and spatial autocorrelations to indicate spatial clustering. The research found that settlements increased from 2.06 to 28.62 ha between 1974 and 2021 and would cover 41.22 ha in 2042, causing considerable losses in agricultural areas, waterbodies, sand, coral reefs, and vegetation. The area under study showed a more uniform and homogenous environment as Shannon's diversity and evenness scores decreased. The ecological risk of Saint Martin Island increased from 4.31 to 31.05 ha between 1974 and 2042 due to natural and human factors like erosion, tidal bores, population growth, coral mining, habitat destruction, and intensive agricultural practices and tourism, primarily in Nazrul Para, Galachipa, and Western Dakhin Para. The findings will benefit St. Martin Island stakeholders and policymakers by providing insights into current and potential landscape changes and land eco-management.