Patterns of early post-disturbance reorganization in Central European forests

Disturbances catalyse change in forest ecosystems, and a climate-driven increase in disturbance activity could accelerate forest reorganization. Here, we studied post-disturbance forests after the biggest pulse of tree mortality in Central Europe in at least 170 years, caused by drought and bark beetle (Scolytinae) outbreaks in 2018-2020. Our objectives were to characterize the early state of tree regeneration after mortality, quantify patterns of reorganization relative to undisturbed reference conditions and assess how management and patch size affect forest reorganization after disturbance. We surveyed 1244 plots in 120 patches under managed (salvage-logged, often planted) and unmanaged (deadwood remaining on site, no planting) conditions in Germany. We found that regeneration density on disturbed sites was high (median 11 897 stems ha^-1), resulting from a cohort of advance regeneration. Disturbances were strong drivers of change, with indications for resilience on only 36.3% of patches. Reassembly (i.e. a change in species composition) was the dominant pattern of reorganization (61.5%), and Picea abies forests changed most strongly. Post-disturbance management facilitated forest change, particularly promoting a change in species composition. The strength of reorganization increased with patch size. We conclude that the recent wave of tree mortality will likely accelerate forest change in Central Europe.