Probability of early infection extinction depends linearly on the virus clearance rate

R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Oct 2;11(10):240903. doi: 10.1098/rsos.240903. eCollection 2024 Oct.

Abstract

We provide an in silico study of stochastic viral infection extinction from a pharmacokinetical viewpoint. Our work considers a non-specific antiviral drug that increases the virus clearance rate, and we investigate the effect of this drug on early infection extinction. Infection extinction data are generated by a hybrid multiscale framework that applies both continuous and discrete mathematical approaches. The central result of our paper is the observation, analysis and explanation of a linear relationship between the virus clearance rate and the probability of early infection extinction. The derivation behind this simple relationship is given by merging different mathematical toolboxes.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; agent-based models; branching processes; multiscale mathematical modelling; spatially explicit model; stochastic extinction.

Associated data

  • figshare/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7465773