Faltering mortality improvements at young-middle ages in high-income English-speaking countries

Int J Epidemiol. 2024 Aug 14;53(5):dyae128. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyae128.

Abstract

Background: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, stagnating life expectancy trends were reported in some high-income countries (HICs). Despite previous evidence from country-specific studies, there is a lack of comparative research that provides a broader perspective and challenges existing assumptions. This study aims to examine longevity trends and patterns in six English-speaking countries (Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States) by combining period and cohort perspectives and to compare them with other HICs.

Methods: Using data from the Human Mortality and World Health Organization Mortality Databases, we estimated partial life expectancy, lifespan inequality and cohort survival differences for 1970-2021, as well as the contribution of causes of death to the gap in life expectancy between English-speaking countries and the average for other HICs in 2017-19.

Results: In the pre-pandemic period, the increase in life expectancy slowed in all English-speaking countries, except Ireland, mainly due to stagnating or rising mortality at young-middle ages. Relative to other HICs, those born in Anglophone countries since the 1970s experienced relative survival disadvantage, largely attributable to injuries (mainly suicides) and substance-related mortality (mainly poisonings). In contrast, older cohorts enjoyed advantages for females in Australia and Canada and for males in all English-speaking countries except the United States.

Conclusions: Although future gains in life expectancy in wealthy societies will increasingly depend on reducing mortality at older ages, adverse health trends at younger ages are a cause for concern. This emerging and avoidable threat to health equity in English-speaking countries should be the focus of further research and policy action.

Keywords: English-speaking countries; cohort survival; injury and substance-related mortality; life expectancy trends; mortality at young-middle ages.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Australia / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / mortality
  • Canada / epidemiology
  • Cause of Death / trends
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Developed Countries* / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Ireland / epidemiology
  • Life Expectancy* / trends
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality* / trends
  • New Zealand / epidemiology
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • United Kingdom / epidemiology
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Young Adult