Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases

PLoS Comput Biol. 2024 Oct 28;20(10):e1012520. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012520. eCollection 2024 Oct.

Abstract

Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can guide control strategies. In recent work, we found that censoring, right truncation, and dynamical bias were rarely addressed correctly when estimating delays and that these biases were large enough to have knock-on impacts across a large number of use cases. Here, we formulate a checklist of best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delays. We also provide a flowchart to guide practitioners based on their data. Our examples are focused on the incubation period and serial interval due to their importance in outbreak response and modeling, but our recommendations are applicable to other delays. The recommendations, which are based on the literature and our experience estimating epidemiological delay distributions during outbreak responses, can help improve the robustness and utility of reported estimates and provide guidance for the evaluation of estimates for downstream use in transmission models or other analyses.

MeSH terms

  • Communicable Diseases* / epidemiology
  • Computational Biology / methods
  • Disease Outbreaks* / statistics & numerical data
  • Epidemiological Models
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical

Grants and funding

AC is funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, Imperial College London and LSHTM (grant code NIHR200908); and acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/X020258/1), funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC). This UK funded award is carried out in the frame of the Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking. SC acknowledges funding support from the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID) and the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR16-CONV-0005). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.