Evaluation of four machine learning methods in predicting orthodontic extraction decision from clinical examination data and analysis of feature contribution

Introduction: The study aims to predict tooth extraction decision based on four machine learning methods and analyze the feature contribution, so as to shed light on the important basis for experts of tooth extraction planning, providing reference for orthodontic treatment planning.

Methods: This study collected clinical information of 192 patients with malocclusion diagnosis and treatment plans. This study used four machine learning strategies, including decision tree, random forest, support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) to predict orthodontic extraction decisions on clinical examination data acquired during initial consultant containing Angle classification, skeletal classification, maxillary and mandibular crowding, overjet, overbite, upper and lower incisor inclination, vertical growth pattern, lateral facial profile. Among them, 30% of the samples were randomly selected as testing sets. We used five-fold cross-validation to evaluate the generalization performance of the model and avoid over-fitting. The accuracy of the four models was calculated for the training set and cross-validation set. The confusion matrix was plotted for the testing set, and 6 indicators were calculated to evaluate the performance of the model. For the decision tree and random forest models, we observed the feature contribution.

Results: The accuracy of the four models in the training set ranges from 82% to 90%, and in the cross-validation set, the decision tree and random forest had higher accuracy. In the confusion matrix analysis, decision tree tops the four models with highest accuracy, specificity, precision and F1-score and the other three models tended to classify too many samples as extraction cases. In the feature contribution analysis, crowding, lateral facial profile, and lower incisor inclination ranked at the top in the decision tree model.

Conclusion: Among the machine learning models that only use clinical data for tooth extraction prediction, decision tree has the best overall performance. For tooth extraction decisions, specifically, crowding, lateral facial profile, and lower incisor inclination have the greatest contribution.