Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

J Nutr Health Aging. 2024 Nov;28(11):100402. doi: 10.1016/j.jnha.2024.100402. Epub 2024 Oct 29.

Abstract

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM.

Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns.

Results: In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions.

Conclusion: LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.

Keywords: GBD; Global; Low physical activity; Prevalence; Type 2 diabetes.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / epidemiology
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / mortality
  • Disability-Adjusted Life Years / trends
  • Exercise*
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Global Burden of Disease* / trends
  • Global Health / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prevalence
  • Sedentary Behavior
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis