Florida mangrove dieback on a decadal and centennial timescales

Hurricanes are considered some of the most devastating weather phenomena, causing deaths and destruction along the coast. Mangroves are perceived as natural defenses against coastal hazards. However, mangrove gaps, known as mangrove dieback, have occurred in southwestern Florida. This study implemented a spatial-temporal analysis based on satellite, lidar and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images collected along the southwestern Florida coast between Tampa and Naples from 1994 to 2020 CE, and multi-proxy analyses on sediment cores sampled from two mangrove dieback sites to determine the cause(s) of mangrove death and the implications for the sustainability of these forests. The data indicated that out of the 86 identified dieback, 78 % arose between 2004 and 2017 CE, when one tropical storm and three hurricanes made landfall on the studied coast, suggesting hurricanes as the main driver for this mangrove degradation. Multi-proxy analysis indicated mangrove expansion since ~600 cal yr BP due to relative sea-level (RSL) rise. However, hurricanes caused losses in the mangrove area between 1930 and 1950 CE, and during the last two decades in the studied sites. Ground topographic data and aerophotogrammetry revealed circular dieback with permanent ponds (~30 cm depth) inhibiting mangrove recovery. The mangrove death occurred in <3 years, with a gradual dieback expansion due to positive feedback involving physicochemical processes in the sediments. In addition, recent hurricanes increased pre-existing dieback areas. Therefore, dieback sites are vulnerability hotspots for mangroves in the face of projected RSL rise and higher frequency of intense hurricane strikes. Mangrove dieback should be monitored on a temporal (seasonal - annual) and spatial (cm-m) resolution only possible through the combination of satellite and UAV data. Integrating remote sensing and stratigraphic analysis enabled us to identify mangrove diebacks on a decadal to centennial timescale, improving our comprehension of how catastrophic weather events affect these forests.