Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change

Front Plant Sci. 2024 Oct 22:15:1440610. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Introduction: Magnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China.

Methods: We selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R.

Results: The ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions.

Discussion: Our study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.

Keywords: biomod2; introduced species; niche shifts; potential geographic distribution; southern magnolia.

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. the Key Disciplines of State Forestry Administration of China (No. 21 of Forest Ren Fa, 2016), and the Hunan Province “Double First-class” Cultivation discipline of China (No. 469 of Xiang Jiao Tong, 2018), Guangxi Nanning Qingxiu Mountain landscape garden national long-term scientific research base (NO. 96, Lin Ke Fa, 2021). This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant (Grant No. 31470666).