Expert opinion elicitation for assisting deep learning based Lyme disease classifier with patient data

Background: Diagnosing erythema migrans (EM) skin lesion, the most common early symptom of Lyme disease, using deep learning techniques can be effective to prevent long-term complications. Existing works on deep learning based EM recognition only utilizes lesion image due to the lack of a dataset of Lyme disease related images with associated patient data. Doctors rely on patient information about the background of the skin lesion to confirm their diagnosis. To assist deep learning model with a probability score calculated from patient data, this study elicited opinions from fifteen expert doctors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first expert elicitation work to calculate Lyme disease probability from patient data.

Methods: For the elicitation process, a questionnaire with questions and possible answers related to EM was prepared. Doctors provided relative weights to different answers to the questions. We converted doctors' evaluations to probability scores using Gaussian mixture based density estimation. We exploited formal concept analysis and decision tree for elicited model validation and explanation. We also proposed an algorithm for combining independent probability estimates from multiple modalities, such as merging the EM probability score from a deep learning image classifier with the elicited score from patient data.

Results: We successfully elicited opinions from fifteen expert doctors to create a model for obtaining EM probability scores from patient data.

Conclusions: The elicited probability score and the proposed algorithm can be utilized to make image based deep learning Lyme disease pre-scanners robust. The proposed elicitation and validation process is easy for doctors to follow and can help address related medical diagnosis problems where it is challenging to collect patient data.