Objectives: To assess the public health and economic impact of vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, KP.2, in 2024/2025 in the United States.
Methods: A combined cohort Markov-decision tree model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of vaccination versus no vaccination in adults aged ≥18 years. The adult population was further stratified into 18-64 years and ≥65 years age groups. Public health surveillance data informed the annual proportion of individuals infected with and vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of those infected who were hospitalized, stratified by age. Other age-stratified clinical, cost, and vaccine effectiveness parameters were informed by literature. The budget impact analysis was based on a hypothetical 1-million-member plan and used a payer perspective. Parameter uncertainty was tested in sensitivity analyses.
Results: Without vaccination, the model projected 21.4 million new symptomatic cases, 15,793 deaths, 629,098 hospitalizations, $115.5 billion in total costs, and 1 million QALYs lost among adults aged ≥18 years, with the greatest health burden observed among older adults aged ≥65 years (72% of hospitalizations and 86% of deaths) and the greatest economic burden in adults aged 18-64 years (62% of total costs). Vaccination was projected to prevent 915,501 cases, 1,057 deaths, and 37,489 hospitalizations, resulting in cost savings of $513 million, 9,173 LYs gained, 56,482 QALYs gained, and a dominant ICER. In the budget impact analysis, vaccination was estimated to result in total incremental cost savings for the population aged ≥65 years and a modest budget increase for the population aged 18-64 years.
Conclusions: Vaccination with the Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, KP.2, is a cost-effective measure from the societal perspective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 that could reduce the health and economic burden of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Cost-effectiveness; I10; I18; KP.2; Pfizer-BioNTech; SARS-CoV-2; United States; public health impact; vaccine.