HIV-1 Nef mediates immune evasion and viral pathogenesis in part through downregulation of cell surface cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) and major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) on infected cells. While Nef function of circulating viral populations found early in infection has been associated with reservoir size in early-treated cohorts, there is limited research on how its activity impacts reservoir size in people initiating treatment during chronic infection. In addition, there is little research on its role in persistence of viral variants during long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART). Phylogenetically distinct nef genes (n=82) with varying estimated times of reservoir entry were selected from viral outgrowth variants stimulated from the reservoir of South African women living with HIV who initiated ART during chronic infection (n=16). These nef genes were synthesized and used in a pseudovirus infection assay that measures CD4 and MHC-I downregulation via flow cytometry. Downregulation measures were compared to the size of the replication-competent viral reservoir (RC-VR), estimated by quantitative viral outgrowth assay (QVOA) at 5 years after treatment initiation, as well as proviral survival time. Maximum Nef-mediated MHC-I downregulation was significantly associated with RC-VR size (p=0.034), but this association was not observed for CD4 downregulation. Conversely, we did not find a consistent association between intraparticipant MHC-I or CD4 downregulation and the variant timing of entry into the reservoir. These data support a role for Nef-mediated MHC-I downregulation in determining RC-VR size, but more work is needed to determine Nef's role in the survival of individual viral variants over time.