Use of Pancreatic Density on Computed Tomography to Predict Postendoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis

Introduction: Postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) is a frequent complication, and its pathogenesis remains unclear, with various patient and procedural factors proposed as potential contributors. This study aimed to assess the predictive value of pancreatic to splenic density ratio on computed tomography (CT) for PEP in patients with inadvertent pancreatic duct cannulation.

Methods: This retrospective study involved 2556 patients undergoing ERCP from January 2014 to December 2020. Inclusion criteria comprised patients with choledocholithiasis, preprocedural CT imaging, and inadvertent pancreatic duct cannulation during ERCP. Demographics, preprocedural laboratory values, pancreatic to splenic density ratios from CT scans, and pancreatic stent usage were analyzed in relation to the development of PEP.

Results: A total of 90 patients were included in the study. Of all patients, 51.1% were female (n = 46), and 48.9% were male (n = 44). The mean (±standard deviation) age was 58.93 (±17.01). Significant differences in sodium levels and the pancreatic to splenic density ratio were noted between the PEP and non-PEP groups. Pancreatic to splenic density ratio <0.74 (odds ratio: 8.253; P = 0.020) was identified as an independent risk factor for PEP.

Conclusions: Pancreas to spleen density ratio on CT imaging serves as a potential predictive marker for PEP, offering insights into risk stratification and guiding prophylactic measures in high-risk patients.