Examining observed and forecasted nursing PhD enrollment and graduation trends in the United States: Implications for the profession

The U.S. is facing a mounting nursing faculty shortage. The size of one key group of potential faculty members, new nursing PhD graduates, is declining. The first step to programmatic and policy development to increase the number of PhD faculty is understanding recent and future trends in nursing PhD graduates and enrollments. This study aimed: 1) to analyze 10-year observed trends in the number of nursing PhD graduates, enrollments, and programs; 2) describe the geographical distribution of nursing PhD programs; and 3) forecast enrollment and graduation trends nationally and regionally. Data were from the American Association of Colleges of Nursing Annual Survey from academic years 2012-13 to 2021-22. From 2012-13 through 2021-22, the number of nursing PhD programs remained stable, and graduation rates increased by 13.9 %, though enrollments decreased by about 14.5 %. Forecasted trends suggest that both enrollments and graduates will decrease in the next ten years, with some regional variation. Overall, fewer PhD-prepared nurses may impact the capacity to educate more nurses in bachelor's and master's programs and limit input into future research and policy advancements. Recommendations include education about the nurse PhD role, programmatic changes and student financial support, and increasing diversity and multidisciplinarity in nursing.