An explainable analysis of diabetes mellitus using statistical and artificial intelligence techniques

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease prevalent worldwide, requiring a multifaceted analytical approach to improve early detection and subsequent mitigation of morbidity and mortality rates. This research aimed to develop an explainable analysis of DM by combining sociodemographic and clinical data with statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques.

Methods: Leveraging a small dataset that includes sociodemographic and clinical profiles of diabetic and non-diabetic individuals, we employed a diverse set of statistical and AI models for predictive purposes and assessment of DM risk factors. The statistical tests used were Student's t-test and Chi-square, while the AI techniques were fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), and XGBoost.

Results: Our statistical models facilitated an in-depth exploration of variable associations, while the resulting AI models demonstrated exceptional efficacy in DM classification. In particular, the XGBoost model showed superior performance in accuracy, sensitivity and specificity with values of 1 for each of these metrics. On the other hand, the FCM stood out for its explainability capabilities by allowing an analysis of the variables involved in the prediction using scenario-based simulations.

Conclusions: An integrated analysis of DM using a variety of methodologies is critical for timely detection of the disease and informed clinical decision-making.