Unveiling the resource potential of space debris: A forecast of valuable metals to 2050

The proliferation of space debris poses a significant challenge in modern space exploration, with potential repercussions for the future space environment and activities. Various research and technological developments have addressed these concerns, including estimating the number of space debris orbiting the Earth and its efficient removal. This paper proposes a novel resource-oriented perspective on space debris and focuses on the composition and resource potential of space debris. This study forecasts for the first time the annual mass changes in resource materials (Al, Al₂O₃, Ti, Fe, Cu, and Ag) by the year 2050 by employing a debris environment model simulation. Our simulation reveals that the masses of all the studied resource elements in an Earth orbital altitude of 400 km will increase by 2050. For example, Al and Ti at the 400 km altitude band will increase from 3.0 × 10⁶ kg and 3.2 × 10⁵ kg (in 2016) to 3.8 × 10⁷ kg and 4.2 × 10⁶ kg (in 2050), respectively, climbing at least ten times from 2016 to 2050, on the conservative estimates with a high post-mission disposal success rate. These comparative influxes of Al and Ti in 2050 due to space debris are at least 100 times higher than the natural influxes into the Earth's atmosphere due to meteoroids, further highlighting the significance of space debris. Our simulation results suggest that space debris may hold significant space resource potential in the next 25 years but can be a considerable environmental contaminant impeding space sustainability.