Positive association of oscillometrically estimated baseline arterial stiffness with incident diabetes and prediabetes: A large population-based cohort study

Aims: This large population-based study aimed to investigate whether arterial stiffness, assessed oscillometrically, was associated with incident diabetes/prediabetes.

Methods: The study sample comprised 4240 participants from the Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study (mean±SD age = 66 ± 8). Arterial stiffness was assessed from 5 April 2011-6 November 2012 by way of aortic PWV (aPWV) and estimated carotid-femoral PWV (ecfPWV). Incident diabetes/prediabetes was determined by linkage to dispensed prescription and national hospital discharge registers. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the risk of diabetes/prediabetes in relation to chosen arterial stiffness measures both overall and over quartiles.

Results: During a mean±SD follow-up of 10.5 ± 0.4 years, 470 participants developed diabetes/prediabetes. Following adjustment for potential confounders, aPWV (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.40, 95 % CI, 1.19-1.64) was associated with the incidence of diabetes. The risk of incident diabetes was, compared to the first quartile, higher in the fourth quartile of aPWV (HR, 1.98, 95 %CI, 1.26-3.11)(P_trend=0.01).

Conclusions: Arterial stiffness, as measured by aPWV may be a useful predictor of incident diabetes that can be utilized in clinical practice.