Disease Progression Mathematical Modeling With a Case Study on Hepatitis B Virus Infection

CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol. 2024 Dec 27. doi: 10.1002/psp4.13298. Online ahead of print.

Abstract

Chronic Hepatitis B presents a significant health and socioeconomic burden. The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma remains elevated although treatments are available. Achieving an optimal treatment regimen necessitates a deep comprehension of the dynamic relationship between the virus and its host across disease states. This tutorial elucidates essential considerations for establishing a disease modeling platform to facilitate informed decision-making in hepatitis B treatment strategies. We review several published models of varying complexity and describe the context that motivated each model's structure and assumptions. Several of the models are made available in an interactive RShiny app to demonstrate the influence of model choice and sensitivity to the choice of parameter values.

Keywords: HBV; disease progression; mathematical modeling; viral dynamics.