Enhancing Clinical Decision Making by Predicting Readmission Risk in Patients With Heart Failure Using Machine Learning: Predictive Model Development Study

Background: Patients with heart failure frequently face the possibility of rehospitalization following an initial hospital stay, placing a significant burden on both patients and health care systems. Accurate predictive tools are crucial for guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing patient care. However, the effectiveness of existing models tailored specifically to the Chinese population is still limited.

Objective: This study aimed to formulate a predictive model for assessing the likelihood of readmission among patients diagnosed with heart failure.

Methods: In this study, we analyzed data from 1948 patients with heart failure in a hospital in Sichuan Province between 2016 and 2019. By applying 3 variable selection strategies, 29 relevant variables were identified. Subsequently, we constructed 6 predictive models using different algorithms: logistic regression, support vector machine, gradient boosting machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting, multilayer perception, and graph convolutional networks.

Results: The graph convolutional network model showed the highest prediction accuracy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.831, accuracy of 75%, sensitivity of 52.12%, and specificity of 90.25%.

Conclusions: The model crafted in this study proves its effectiveness in forecasting the likelihood of readmission among patients with heart failure, thus serving as a crucial reference for clinical decision-making.