The Burden of Severe Periodontitis in China From 1990 to 2021, With Projections to 2050: A Comprehensive Analysis From The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: The study aims to explore the epidemiologic information related to severe periodontitis in China.

Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to delineate the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to severe periodontitis in China, stratified by age and gender. A range of analytical methods, including comparative analysis, trend analysis, decomposition analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, health inequality analysis, and predictive modeling, were employed to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the disease burden.

Results: The GBD 2021 estimated the annual age-standardized prevalence, incidence and DALYs of severe periodontitis in China to be 0.97% (95% CI: 0.83, 1.10), 10.80% (95% CI: 8.88, 12.78), and 70.15 per 100,000 (95% CI, 27.97, 144.15), respectively. The burden was higher in males than in females, with a marked increase observed in middle-aged and elderly populations. Trend analysis revealed a general rise in the burden of severe periodontitis in China over time. Decomposition analysis identified population growth and aging as the principal drivers of the increase in disease burden. Health inequality analysis indicated a growing disparity related to the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), with a disproportionate burden concentrated in regions with higher SDI. Projections suggest that the burden of severe periodontitis in China will remain substantial from 2022 through 2050.

Conclusion: Future public health initiatives should prioritize enhancing the management of middle-aged and elderly populations, while simultaneously advancing public health systems in tandem with economic growth. These efforts are critical to effectively addressing the challenges posed by population growth and aging.