Predicting autoimmune thyroiditis in primary Sjogren's syndrome patients using a random forest classifier: a retrospective study

Background: Primary Sjogren's syndrome (pSS) and autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT) share overlapping genetic and immunological profiles. This retrospective study evaluates the efficacy of machine learning algorithms, with a focus on the Random Forest Classifier, to predict the presence of thyroid-specific autoantibodies (TPOAb and TgAb) in pSS patients.

Methods: A total of 96 patients with pSS were included in the retrospective study. All participants underwent a complete clinical and laboratory evaluation. All participants underwent thyroid function tests, including TPOAb and TgAb, and were accordingly divided into positive and negative thyroid autoantibody groups. Four machine learning algorithms were then used to analyze the risk factors affecting patients with pSS with positive and negative for thyroid autoantibodies.

Results: The results indicated that the Random Forest Classifier algorithm (AUC = 0.755) outperformed the other three machine learning algorithms. The random forest classifier indicated Age, IgG, C4 and dry mouth were the main factors influencing the prediction of positive thyroid autoantibodies in pSS patients. It is feasible to predict AIT in pSS using machine learning algorithms.

Conclusions: Analyzing clinical and laboratory data from 96 pSS patients, the Random Forest model demonstrated superior performance (AUC = 0.755), identifying age, IgG levels, complement component 4 (C4), and absence of dry mouth as primary predictors. This approach offers a promising tool for early identification and management of AIT in pSS patients.

Trial registration: This retrospective study was approved and monitored by the Ethics Committee of The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (No.II2023-254-02).