Sustainable solar energy deployment: a multi-criteria decision-making approach for site suitability and greenhouse gas emission reduction

Conventional power generation methods have led to adverse environmental impacts. Thus, the need for a strategic transition to alternative energy sources arises. This study presents a comprehensive approach to sustainable solar energy deployment using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. The research aims to identify suitable sites for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, estimate potential energy output, and assess solar PV deployment's environmental and economic impacts. The methodology integrates analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy logic, and geographic information systems (GIS) to evaluate land suitability across four scenarios. The analysis considers technical, economic, environmental, and social factors, including solar radiation, proximity to infrastructure, land use, topography, and stakeholder opinions. Results reveal that Scenario 1 analytic hierarchy process multi-criteria-decision-making (AHP-MCDM) identified 2824.1 km² of suitable land, while the combined approach in Scenario 3 yielded 666.9 km². The study estimates potential annual energy generation ranging from 19.69 to 109.15 GWh/km²/year, depending on the scenario and solar PV technology used. Environmental impact assessments indicate potential annual CO₂ emission reductions of up to 51,365.84 tons, with associated cost savings of US $3.28 million. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors, highlighting 16 optimal sites for utility-scale solar farm development across Jamaica, with the most promising in the Westmoreland, Manchester, and St. Mary parishes. These findings contribute to Jamaica's renewable energy goals and offer a replicable, sustainable solar energy planning framework in similar geographical contexts.