The association between the metabolic score for insulin resistance and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: a national cohort study

Background: The metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) is a novel index for evaluating insulin resistance and identifying high-risk cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients. This study aims to assess the prognostic value of METS-IR in predicting mortality risk in CVD patients.

Methods: We analyzed data from 2,515 CVD patients in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Associations between METS-IR and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines (RCS). Threshold effects and sensitivity analyses were conducted to ensure robustness.

Results: Over a median follow-up of 91.4 months, 1,090 patients died, including 447 from cardiovascular causes. A U-shaped relationship was identified between lnMETS-IR and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with thresholds at 3.70 and 3.67. Below thresholds, an increase of lnMETS-IR was associated with a 75% reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.14-0.46) and a 79% reduction in the risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.07-0.56). While above thresholds, an increase of lnMETS-IR was associated with a 180% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.61-4.88) and a 233% increase in the risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR: 3.33, 95% CI: 1.43-7.75).

Conclusions: This study identified a U-shaped association between lnMETS-IR and mortality among CVD patients, underscoring the potential of METS-IR as a valuable prognostic marker for mortality risk in patients with CVD.