Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict 2-Year Clinical Remission in Ulcerative Colitis Patients on Vedolizumab

Background and aims: Vedolizumab is s gut-selective advanced therapy that is safe and efficacious for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). Once patients achieve successful induction, there is a risk of loss of response leading to eventual flare. We aimed to identify these predictive factors and develop a practical scoring system to determine the ongoing efficacy of vedolizumab.

Methods: We performed logistic regression on prospectively recruited UC subjects from the Vedolizumab Immunomodulator Enforced Withdrawal Study (VIEWS). All patients were in corticosteroid-free clinical remission and endoscopic improvement at baseline and continued vedolizumab. Predictive factors of 2-year corticosteroid-free clinical remission were determined and modeled into the VIEWS score, then validated in a real-world UC cohort.

Results: Of 62 patients in the derivation cohort, 48 (77.4%) maintained clinical remission over two years. The predictive factors of remission were female (odds ratio [OR] 6.0, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-29.7), antitumor necrosis factor naive (OR 3.8, 95% CI,1.0-14.0), baseline histological remission (OR 10.8, 95% CI, 2.4-48.4), thiopurine combination (OR 3.6, 95% CI, 0.7-18.0), and fecal calprotectin level ≤250 µg/g (OR 6.3, 95% CI, 0.9-42.2). These factors were incorporated into VIEWS score, yielding an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.81-0.98) in the prediction of 2-year clinical remission. Of 64 UC patients in the validation cohort, 40 (62.5%) remained in clinical remission at 2 years with AUROC of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.60-0.94). At the cut-off threshold of 4, the VIEWS score identified 2-year clinical remission with a sensitivity of 88.4% and specificity of 63.6%.

Conclusions: Our study determined predictive factors and proposed a scoring system of ongoing clinical remission in UC patients on maintenance vedolizumab. In patients at high risk of relapse, combination therapy with thiopurine may be beneficial.