Contact tracing is commonly used to manage infectious diseases of both humans and animals. It aims to detect early and control potentially infected individuals or farms that had contact with infectious cases. Because it is very resource-intensive, contact tracing is usually performed on a pre-defined time window, based on previous knowledge of the duration of the incubation period. However, pre-defined time windows may not be always relevant, reducing the efficiency of contact tracing. In this study, we estimated the day when farms were first infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, a devastating pathogen causing severe socio-economic damage in domestic poultry. The estimation was performed by fitting a stochastic mechanistic model to observed daily mortality data from 63 infected poultry farms in France and The Netherlands, using approximate Bayesian computation. Independent of the poultry species or country, the estimates of the time of first infection ranged between 3.4 (95% credible interval-CrI: 2.6, 4.6) and 19.9 (95% CrI: 11.9, 31.3) days prior to the last observation. We developed an online application to provide real-time support to policymakers by estimating realistic ranges of dates of first infection to inform contact tracing and improve its efficiency.
Keywords: Shiny app; approximate Bayesian computation; highly pathogenic avian influenza; mechanistic modelling; mortality data; time of first infection.